This is the much-anticipated question as many try to place their predictions, inspirations, and worries to rest, in trucking in 2025.
This once vibrant industry with steady growth, income, and potential that brought so many men and women into the profession, has been unsteady for awhile.
Remember how the trucking industry, years ago, slowly allowed hundreds if not thousands of unqualified drivers in?
This could very well have been where the trouble started.
That So-Called Shortage of Drivers
Many articles and stories appear in mainstream media about a driver shortage and the urgency to fill a need.
This is false and misleading.
The issues with drivers were retention, appreciation, and wages.
The qualified drivers were leaving the industry as years of sacrifice awarded little growth, promise, and reward. Unless you were one of the lucky ones who managed to leave the driver’s seat and merge into an administrative position or another career.
Many of us seasoned drivers saw this coming, and predicted the outcomes, with some even warning the leaders of its direction and fate.
Instead, corporate greed, politics, and higher agendas took the lead.
The Reality Today
Today, we experience:
- soaring operating costs
- plummeting freight rates
- qualified staff shortages
- lack of interest for younger generations to join
- and of course improper skilled trade placement in the workforce.
Maybe A Glimmer of Hope?
But there is a glimmer of hope.
A possible shimmer of light on the horizon.
There is the possible development of a Red Seal Certification in the trucking world.
Backed by the PTTAC (Professional Truck Training Alliance of Canada) and several industry leaders this could be a savior for many.
But Is It Too Late?
The sudden growth of many trucking firms that have seemingly lower hiring standards, business practices, and completely uncompetitive morals, has left many legitimate firms to fall victim, forcing them to shutter their doors for good.
Speaking with many leaders in the industry, the answer is always the same.
Reduced rates have crippled the profit margins of many trucking companies trying to maintain a certain standards, all while struggling to withstand the rising costs that are not reflected in today’s rates.
The insurance, fuel, and general operating costs have crippled many trying to survive the Covid and other storms put forth in the last few years.
Many lanes that trucking companies are running today have reduced profits by as much as 50% for the same or increased costs of just 2 years ago.
So What Lies in Store For Trucking In 2025?
- Political. On the political front, changing governments promise a rise in Tariffs, trade wars, and more reasons to feel skeptical in the upcoming future.
If nothing changes, most likely the larger firms will push many smaller companies into bankruptcy.
- Trucking Companies Closing. We will see more long-term trucking firms closing their doors, and many experienced staff, drivers, and operational support finding other avenues to live out their tenures.
However, I am an optimist and believe the majority of the industry is still made up of old school participants who see a future of safe, reliable, and profitable industry ideals.
- Autonomy Far Away in the Future. The world of autonomous trucks is decades away. Most of the industry as well as the current infrastructure is just not ready for autonomy.
- Red Seal Certification. Iif the industry correctly adopts the Red Seal Certification program, it will need complete industry support, not only at entry level, but also existing qualified staff with a grandfathering clause on merit, a privately helped certification organization with ties to one industry or company.
In order to be successful, licensing will need to be:
- completed with stricter standards
- an apprenticeship program developed
- pay structures to certified seal holders
- certified schools and trainers
- and generally held to higher standards
- Operators who have silently sat by the sidelines and have continued to struggle with situations beyond their control will speak up.
The politics of today will have to conform somewhat to the needs of the public to sustain this storm.
- Greater Demand For Safety. There will be a higher demand for safety in the trucking industry with increased safety standards and requirements to become a commercial operator. Many advocacy groups, will continue to fight for increased safety on our roads.
Current Canadian programs will be quietly removed as a Red Seal Certification will become the new standard for entry-level applicants.
The downside to this is a large pool of qualified drivers have already left the industry, while the driver pool of existing drivers will cause many large firms to downsize or restructure to accommodate the new standards in the coming years.
- Restructuring. I believe both the US and Canada will see many restructures as smaller firms continue to find the financial climate difficult to continue. Most likely they will be dissolved into larger firms, or fall away altogether.
- Freight rates will continue to slowly rise, but costs will continue to increase while political fields struggle to set a footing and adjust to 2024’s inflation rise.
- New Truck Sales will continue to drop as costs continue to plateau. Many companies will retain current inventories of procurement with longer stretching operating costs over longer periods.
- Used Truck Market. In the same conditions, the used truck market will continue to thrive as competitors continue to look for ways to reduce operating costs and overhead.
- CDL Licensing Changes We May See
- a restructuring of licensing requirements in many districts,
- possible retesting of current license holders
- immigration statuses revoked
- trade school certification and higher standards applied.
The Beacon of Light At The End of the Tunnel
Yes, I do see a light at the end of the tunnel.
It will take more than an association, alliance, and league to make any positive changes a reality.
It will take professional drivers, operations, support groups, companies, and of course political support.
And positive media support.
And training. Lots of training.
Enforcement.
Removing the equipment and operators that continue to stain this industry’s image and record.
Enhance the support of companies that operate by law, by reducing costs and rewarding compliance.
Patience.
And possibly a few career changes, at least for me.
The Driver’s Seat May Not Be The Future
The driver’s seat may never be an attractive solution for many of us in the future.
But those years of experience that many of us endured over the years, would be an asset for many ready to enter a new world of skilled certified trucking.
Today’s tools in the trucking industry could only be a dream of those like myself who still remember,
- a folded map over the steering wheel
- a fax machine search at a truck stop
- and a blanket over the lap to keep warm
I hear many who complain today about how the requirements of a truck driver have increased, and the demands on a driver are high.
I remember a time when as a driver, we were:
- doing many roadside repairs to keep rolling
- changing our tires on the side of the road
- fingerprinting an entire load, after driving all day and night
- multiple hours at docks
- customs brokerage jogging, and the list goes on.
Today, there are accident avoidance systems, air conditioning, GPS, electronic clearances, rolling hotels, and skidded shipper load and count freight, to make the driver’s life just a bit easier. These are priceless.
We Must Adapt
It seems we will not have a choice but to adapt to today’s trucking.
“Smart Trucking” today invites a completely different operator: a technology-based, hour and speed-restrictive mode of conveyance that has become over-regulated and has different skill requirements than prior decades required.
On a positive note, this has increased the attraction of the trucking industry to a new and wider employment base.
Trucks are built with the driver in mind, with comforts that were once never imagined. These invite a new workforce.
But still, a skill is required, to manipulate, steer, and safely navigate these ever-growing machines into the cities and points of delivery that do not bend for the faint of heart.
The public’s safety depends on how these men and women are prepared and supported while on the road.
Truckers of Yesterday Can Be The Solution of Tomorrow
Some of us may be the truckers of yesterday.
But, we can also become the solution of tomorrow.
Over the past few years, I have made some remarkable contacts.
I know I am not alone in my determination to make this industry great again!
With the proper leadership, guidance, and fellowship this can be a reality.
It will take time, proper guidelines, and structure.
But, beyond 2025,the light at the end of the tunnel is not going to extinguish itself, as long as a few determined individuals like myself, still have a voice and vision.
2025 will hopefully lead to better days ahead in the trucking industry.
By: John DeGroot, Ontario Professional Drivers Safety Association
